MENU

Carruse

miércoles, 4 de diciembre de 2019

因果応報 いんが-おうほう

人はよい行いをすればよい報いがあり、悪い行いをすれば悪い報いがあるということ。▽もと仏教語。行為の善悪に応じて、その報いがあること。現在では悪いほうに用いられることが多い。「因」は因縁の意で、原因のこと。「果」は果報の意で、原因によって生じた結果や報いのこと。
出典
『大慈恩寺三蔵法師伝だいじおんじさんぞうほうしでん』七
句例
因果応報とあきらめる
用例
月日を経るに従い、これぞまさしく因果応報の戒めなるべくやと、自然に観念いたすように相成り申し候。<永井荷風・榎物語>
類語
悪因悪果あくいんあっか 悪因苦果あくいんくか 因果報応いんがほうおう 前因後果ぜんいんこうか 善因善果ぜんいんぜんか


signos

Signo visual
Signo lingüístico
S signo auditivo

lunes, 2 de diciembre de 2019

En la relación de amor que se establece entre dos consciencias libres la más débil es la que ama más.

how to develop confidence and self esteem

One of the easiest ways to develop self-confidence and higher self-esteem is to become very good at something - perhaps your job.

Don’t be the guy who’s satisfied with mediocre work and says it’s “good enough”. If it’s only “good enough” it’s not.

Make a habit of doing everything you do as excellently as possible. Even if no one sees your work but you, imagine the CEO or president of the company is going to review your work. Before you turn in anything in writing, review it several times to catch any misspellings or grammatical errors, and always use Spell-Check. Imagine your English professor is going to review that report.

If your work hours are from 8:00 to 5:00, show up at 7:45 AM and don’t leave until 5:15 PM. It will be noticed.

Dress as professionally as is appropriate for your work place. If you work as a lawyer, CPA or stock broker, this probably means a well-tailored suit and tie. If you work in a tech industry, dressing professionally may mean a polo shirt, khakis and loafers. Dress like the CEO or president of the company dresses.

Make a habit of treating everyone you work with with respect and polite manners.

If you develop a reputation of being excellent at your work, as being highly professional in all your dealings with others and as being polite and respectful to everyone, you will earn the respect of others, and thereby become more self-confident and increase your self-esteem.

domingo, 1 de diciembre de 2019

No pueden satisfacer a una y quieren más.

cómo ser más temperante

que es una mujer con valores

urgido

igual que todos, nomás buscando mujeres

con razón , frase para crear hipótesis

Que bajo caes, que autoestima tan baja para caer en ese medio.

Así le vamos a hacer ya pues yo también voy a salir con muchos.

no crees que quiero tener relaciones y novios

Si mi amigo se muere por mi, yo no sé que hago contigo

sábado, 30 de noviembre de 2019

color code for calendar activities

Quality of life 

縁ある人
万里の道を越えて引き合うもの
縁なき人
顔をあわせ すべもなくすれ違う

あなたを私は追い回す
私はあなたの毒になる

河よ 教えて泣く前に
この縁はありやなしや

あなたを私は追い回す
私はあなたの毒になる

河よ教えて泣く前に
この縁はありやなしや
この縁はありやなしや

jueves, 21 de noviembre de 2019

being mediocre

Everybody insists: Be remarkable, be genius, be this and be that.

But, how many people actually have acted on such advice? The answer is: just 1%.

Because, being remarkable sounds like a lot of effort, a lot of thinking, and a lot of sacrifices.

People find it attractive to hear such great and powerful words. Sure, everybody wants to become remarkable. Everyone wants to be known as a master or someone who has nailed the success formula.

Everyone wants but can't achieve mastery! See, isn't this interesting?

Why is that?

Here's why: When a person decides to be remarkable, her false beliefs come in the way. False beliefs, in the sense that she will see a lot of faults, shortcomings in her life than positive things about herself. Some false beliefs she got from what she has been told since here childhood. And some false beliefs she adopted through her own experience in life.

When she aims at being remarkable, she will imagine that, 'being remarkable means doing everything beyond average, and see I even can't do it at a lower standard'. She will think, 'for being remarkable, I will need to have a lot of resources, time and opportunities, but I don't have any of them at my disposal'.

Such false beliefs will never make anybody remarkable but even that person won't be a medicre too. Because, out of fear and false beliefs, she will never dare to act.

What, I think, would work better is to let people be mediocre first. We should just be aiming at being average. We should remain realistic while having passion for whatever we want to be.

When I am asking someone to just be average, encouraging her to show me whatever she has done, she will be more comfortable in actually working on it, knowing I won't laugh. There are many people who have potential for doing something great, but they never give their potential a try because they know that their work will be average. And that the world just laughs at the average work. Everybody wants you to be remarkable.

In order to make our family members, staff members, collegues, wife, and, son remarkable, first we should encourage them to be mediocre. Appreciate their skills, their poor writing or poor email draft. This way, they will feel confident about their work. It will be fun for them to do an average thing and then letting you see it.

Encourage people to come up with anything they have done. Encourage them to forget about being good, just ask them to focus on their own creativity, help them meet their potential.

And if the person whom you want to change is you; do the same thing. Make yourself happy with being average. The first step has to taken at zero-point, after all. Learn, make mistakes and be proud of yourself for being enough bold to do something . The more you will be willing to work, to show it to your friends, the more you will have courage to excel in whatever you do.

Don't be afraid of being average. If you are taking productive actions, and are actually making decisions, and holding yourself responsible for them, you are far better than people who are not taking action at all.

You know, there are only 01% of people who are creating something on internet. 99% of people are just looking at the screens. So, its wise to be in the league of creators. No matter how bad you are in creating your thing but still you are in group of people who are making the difference. The more you will produce lousy work today, the better it will make you tomorrow. :)

How your lousy work will make you better tomorrow, you ask. Because, with practice you will get better on a daily basis. All you have to do is to just make a decision and produce something without worrying for high quality. If you will worry for high quality, you won't even be producing low quality. So, embrace low quality and from there on go to higher quality of anything you want.

domingo, 17 de noviembre de 2019

The Feynman Technique

When I first read about Feynman, I was inspired to try to formulate many of these
different observations into a concrete method I could apply to my own studies. What
resulted was something I named the Feynman Technique and applied extensively during
my MIT Challenge. The purpose of using this technique is to help develop intuition about
the ideas you are learning. It can be used when you don’t understand an idea at all or
simply when you understand something a little but really want to turn it into a deep
intuition.
The method is quite simple:
Write down the concept or problem you want to understand at the top of a piece of
paper.
In the space below, explain the idea as if you had to teach it to someone else.
If it’s a concept, ask yourself how you would convey the idea to someone who
has never heard of it before.
If it’s a problem, explain how to solve it and—crucially—why that solution
procedure makes sense to you.
When you get stuck, meaning your understanding fails to provide a clear answer, go
back to your book, notes, teacher, or reference material to find the answer.
The crux of this method is that it tries to dispel the illusion of explanatory depth. Since
many of our understandings are never articulated, it’s easy to think you understand
something you don’t. The Feynman Technique bypasses this problem by forcing you to
articulate the idea you want to understand in detail. Just as drawing a bicycle quickly
confirms whether you have a basic grasp of how it is put together, using this technique
will quickly reveal how much you really understand of your subject. Now any gaps in your
understanding will become obvious as you struggle to explain key parts of the idea.
The technique itself has some nuances and can be applied in a few different ways that
might be helpful, depending on your specific intuitive deficit.
Application 1: For Things You Don’t Understand at All
The first way to use this approach is when you don’t understand something at all. In this
case, the easiest way is to do it with the book in hand and go back and forth between
your explanation and the one in the book. This lacks the benefits of retrieval practice, but
it can often be essential when the explanation you’ve been given baffles you. Feynman
himself did something similar when presented with what he saw to be philosophical
gobbledygook:
I had this uneasy feeling of “I’m not adequate,” until finally I said to myself, “I’m going
to stop, and read one sentence slowly, so I can figure out what the hell it means.”
So I stopped—at random—and read the next sentence very carefully. I can’t remember
it precisely, but it was very close to this: “The individual member of the social
community often receives his information via visual, symbolic channels.” I went back
and forth over it, and translated. You know what it means? “People read.” 17
Although Feynman’s method was aimed more at illustrating the deliberately confusingnature of the prose rather than trying to understand a nuanced meaning, the same
method can help whenever you’re learning anything that goes over your head.
I used this technique when taking a class on machine vision during the MIT Challenge. I
didn’t understand photogrammetry, a technique of determining the 3D shape of an object
based on a series of 2D pictures taken under different lighting conditions. It involved
some tricky concepts, so I wasn’t quite sure how it worked. With my textbook at my side, I
wrote a few pages of notes, trying to sketch out the broad strokes of the idea so I could
get the general gist of it. 18
Application 2: For Problems You Can’t Seem to Solve
A second way to apply this is for solving a difficult problem or mastering a technique. In
this instance, it’s very important to go through the problem step by step alongside the
explanation you generate, rather than simply summarizing it. Summarizing may end up
skipping over the core difficulties of the problem. Going deeper may take time, but it can
help you get a strong grasp over a new method in one go, rather than needing numerous
repetitions to memorize the steps.
I applied this to a class in computer graphics for a technique I was struggling with called
grid acceleration. This is a method of speeding up the performance of ray-traced
rendering systems by avoiding analyzing objects that “obviously” won’t be on the part of
the screen you’re drawing. To get a better handle on this, I walked through the problem
with the technique, drawing a little snowman that I imagined rendering, with lines
shooting out of an eyeball representing the camera. 19
Application 3: For Expanding Your Intuition
A final way to apply this method is to ideas that are so important that it would really help
if you had a great intuition about them. In this application of the method, instead of
focusing on explaining every detail or going along with the source material, you should try
to focus on generating illustrative examples, analogies, or visualizations that would make
the idea comprehensible to someone who has learned far less than you have. Imagine
that instead of trying to teach the idea, you are being paid to write a magazine article
explaining the idea. What visual intuitions would you use to pin down the abstractions?
Which examples would flesh out a general principle? How could you make something
confusing feel obvious?
I applied this to understanding the concept of voltage in an early class on
electromagnetism during the MIT Challenge. Though I was comfortable using the concept
in problems, I didn’t feel that I had a good intuition of what it was. It’s obviously not
energy, electrons, or flows of things. Still, it was hard to get a mental image of an abstract
concept on a wire. Going through this technique and comparing the equations to the ones
for gravity, it’s clear that voltage is to the electrical force as height is to the gravitational
force. Now I could form a visual image. The wires were like troughs of water at different
heights. Batteries were like pumps, moving the water up. Resistors were like hoses
dropping down, of various widths to impede the flow of water draining down. Although this
picture of troughs and hoses wasn’t necessary for solving the equations, it stuck with me
and helped me reason my way out of new situations more easily than if voltage had just
been an abstract quantity.Demystifying Intuition
When many people look at a genius like Richard Feynman, they’re inclined to focus on his
seemingly effortless intuitive leaps. In his playful style and rebellious impulses, he may
seem to defy the stereotype that learning requires hard work. However, as we go beneath
the surface, it becomes clear that he shared much in common with the other ultralearners
I’ve studied. He worked hard on understanding things, and he put incredible amounts of
his spare time into mastering the methods that made his intuition work. In his early days
in college, he and a friend went back and forth over the early books on quantum
mechanics, racing ahead of their classmates to understand it. He even made a meticulous
timetable to allocate hours to his many intellectual pursuits. Even in his trivial obsessions,
he displayed a streak for aggressive methods; while learning lock picking, for example, he
trained himself to go through all the possible combinations, practicing them repeatedly: “I
got it down to an absolute rhythm so I could try the 400 possible back numbers in less
than half an hour. That meant I could open a safe in a maximum of eight hours—with an
average time of four hours.” 20
When people hear about geniuses, especially the iconoclastic ones such as Feynman,
there’s a tendency to focus on their gifts and not their efforts. I have no doubt that
Feynman possessed gifts. But perhaps his greatest one was his ability to merge tenacious
practice and play. He approached picking locks with the same enthusiasm for solving
puzzles that he did for unraveling the secrets of quantum electrodynamics. It’s this spirit
of playful exploration that I want to turn to in the final principle of ultralearning:
experimentation.














On right kind of feedback

 
What Kind of Feedback Do You Need?
Feedback shows up in many different forms for different types of learning projects.
Getting good at stand-up comedy and learning to write computer programs involve very
different kinds of feedback. Learning higher math and learning languages are going to use
feedback in different ways. The opportunities for seeking better feedback will vary
depending on what you’re trying to learn. Rather than try to spell out exactly what
feedback you need for your learning project, I think it’s important to consider different
types of feedback, along with how each one can be used and cultivated. By knowing what
kind of feedback you’re getting, you can make sure to use it best, while also recognizing
its limitations. In particular, I want to consider three types of feedback: outcome feedback,informational feedback, and corrective feedback. Outcome feedback is the most common
and in many situations the only type of feedback available. Informational feedback is also
fairly common, and it’s important to recognize when you can split apart outcomes to get
feedback on parts of what you’re learning and when feedback only on holistic outcomes is
possible. Corrective feedback is the toughest to find but when employed well can
accelerate learning the most.
Outcome Feedback: Are You Doing It Wrong?
The first type of feedback, and the least granular, is outcome feedback. This tells you
something about how well you’re doing overall but offers no ideas as to what you’re doing
better or worse. This kind of feedback can come in the form of a grade—pass/fail, A, B, or
C—or it can come in the form of an aggregate feedback to many decisions you’re making
simultaneously. The applause Tristan de Montebello received (or the crickets he heard)
after a speech is an example of outcome feedback. It could tell him if he was getting
better or worse, but it couldn’t really say why or how to fix it. Every entrepreneur
experiences this kind of feedback when a new product hits the market. It may sell wildly
well or abysmally, but that feedback comes in bulk, not directly decomposable into the
various aspects of the product. Did the product cost too much? Was the marketing
message not clear enough? Was the packaging unappealing? Customer reviews and
comments can provide clues, but ultimately the success or failure of any new product is a
complex bundle of factors.
This type of feedback is often the easiest to get, and research shows that even getting
this feedback, which lacks a specific message about what you need to improve, can be
helpful. In one study, feedback for a task involving visual acuity facilitated learning, even
when it was delivered in blocks that were too large to get any meaningful information
about which responses were correct and which were incorrect. 4 Many projects that wholly
lack feedback can easily be changed to get this broad-scale feedback. Eric Barone, for
instance, provided a development blog to publish work on his game and solicit feedback
from early drafts. It couldn’t provide him with detailed information about what exactly to
improve and change, but his simply being immersed in an environment that provided
feedback at all was helpful.
Outcome feedback can improve how you learn through a few different mechanisms. One
is by providing you with a motivational benchmark against your goal. If your goal is to
reach a certain quality of feedback, this feedback can give you updates on your progress.
Another is that it can show you the relative merits of different methods you’re trying.
When you are progressing rapidly, you can stick to those learning methods and
approaches. When progress stalls, you can see what you might be able to change in your
current approach. Although outcome feedback isn’t complete, it is often the only kind
available and can still have a potent impact on your learning rate.
Informational Feedback: What Are You Doing Wrong?
The next type of feedback is informational feedback. This feedback tells you what you’re
doing wrong, but it doesn’t necessarily tell you how to fix it. Speaking a foreign language
with a native speaker who doesn’t share a language with you is an exercise in
informational feedback. That person’s confused stare when you misuse a word won’t tellyou what the correct word is, but it will tell you that you’re getting it wrong. Tristan de
Montebello, in addition to the overall assessment of his performance by audience
members at the end of a speech, can also get live informational feedback about how it’s
going moment to moment. Did that joke work? Is my story boring them? This is something
you can spot in the distracted glances or background chatter throughout your speech.
Rock’s stand-up experiment is also a type of informational feedback. He can tell when a
certain joke lands or doesn’t, based on the reaction of the audience. However, they can’t
tell him what to do to make it funnier—he’s the comedian, not them.
This kind of feedback is easy to obtain when you can get real-time access to a feedback
source. A computer programmer who gets error messages when her programs don’t
compile properly may not have enough knowledge to understand what she’s doing wrong.
But as errors increase or diminish, depending on what she does, she can use that signal tofix her problems. Self-provided feedback is also ubiquitous, and in some pursuits it can be
almost as good as feedback from others. When painting a picture, you can simply look at
it and get a sense of whether your brushstrokes are adding to or detracting from the
image you want to convey. Because this kind of feedback often comes from direct
interaction with the environment, it often pairs well with the third principle, directness.
Corrective Feedback: How Can You Fix What You’re Doing Wrong?
The best kind of feedback to get is corrective feedback. This is the feedback that shows
you not only what you’re doing wrong but how to fix it. This kind of feedback is often
available only through a coach, mentor, or teacher. However, sometimes it can be
provided automatically if you are using the right study materials. During the MIT
Challenge, I did most of my practice by going back and forth between assignments and
their solutions, so that when I finished a problem, I was shown not only whether I had
gotten it right or wrong but exactly how my answer differed from the correct one.
Similarly, flash cards and other forms of active recall provide corrective feedback by
showing you the answer to a question after you make your guess.
The educators Maria Araceli Ruiz-Primo and Susan M. Brookhart argue, “The best
feedback is informative and usable by the student(s) who receive it. Optimal feedback
indicates the difference between the current state and the desired learning state AND
helps students to take a step to improve their learning.” 5
The main challenge of this kind of feedback is that it typically requires access to a
teacher, expert, or mentor who can pinpoint your mistakes and correct them for you.
However, sometimes the added edge of having corrective over merely informational
feedback can be worth the effort needed to find such people. Tristan de Montebello
worked with Michael Gendler to help him with his public speaking performance, and that
helped him spot subtle weaknesses in his presentations that would have gone unnoticed
by himself or by a less experienced audience member giving broader feedback.
This type of feedback trumps outcome feedback, which can’t indicate what needs
improving, and informational feedback, which can indicate what to improve but not how.
However, it can also be unreliable. Tristan de Montebello would often get conflicting
advice after delivering a speech; some audience members would tell him to slow down,
while others said to speed up. This can also be a situation in which paying for a tutor can
be useful, because that person can spot the exact nature of your mistake and correct it
with less struggle on your part. The self-directed nature of ultralearning shouldn’t
convince you that learning is best done as an entirely solitary pursuit.Further Notes on Types of Feedback
A few things are worth noting here. First, you need to be careful when trying to “upgrade”
feedback from a weaker form to a stronger form if it’s not actually possible. To switch
from outcome feedback to informational feedback, you need to be able to elicit feedback
on a per element basis of what you’re doing. If instead the feedback is being provided as
a holistic assessment of everything you’re doing, trying to turn it into informational
feedback can backfire. Game designers know to watch out for this, because asking play
testers what they don’t like about a game can often return spurious results: for example,
they don’t like the color of the character or the background music. The truth is, the
players are evaluating the game holistically, so they often can’t offer this kind of
feedback. If their responses come from using it as a whole, not from each aspect
individually, asking for greater specificity may lead to guesses from those giving
feedback.
Similarly, corrective feedback requires a “correct” answer or the response of a recognized
expert. If there is no expert or a single correct approach, trying to turn informational
feedback into corrective feedback can work against you when the wrong change is
suggested as an improvement. De Montebello noted to me that the advice most people
gave him wasn’t terribly useful, but the consistency of it was. If his speech elicited wildly
different reactions each time, he knew there was still a lot of work to do. When the speechstarted to get much more consistent comments, he knew he was onto something. This
illustrates that ultralearning isn’t simply about maximizing feedback but also knowing
when to selectively ignore elements of it to extract the useful information. Understanding
the merits of these different types of feedback, as well as the preconditions that make
them possible, is a big part of choosing the right strategy for an ultralearning project.
How Quick Should Feedback Be?
An interesting question in the research on feedback is how quick it should be. Should you
get immediate information about your mistakes or wait some period of time? In general,
research has pointed to immediate feedback being superior in settings outside of the
laboratory. James A. Kulik and Chen-Lin C. Kulik review the literature on feedback timing
and suggest that “Applied studies using actual classroom quizzes and real learning
materials have usually found immediate feedback to be more effective than delay.” 6
Expertise researcher K. Anders Ericsson agrees, arguing in favor of immediate feedback
when it assists in identifying and correcting mistakes and when it allows one to execute a
corrected version of their performance revised in response to the feedback. 7
Interestingly, laboratory studies tend to show that delaying the presentation of the correctresponse along with the original task (delayed feedback) is more effective. The simplest
explanation of this result is that presenting the question and answer again offers a
second, spaced exposure to the information. If this explanation were correct, all it would
mean is that that immediate feedback is best paired with delayed review (or further
testing) to strengthen your memory compared with a single exposure. I’ll cover more on
spacing and how it impacts your memory in the next chapter on retention.
Despite the superficially mixed results on the timing of feedback from the scientific
literature, I generally recommend faster feedback. This enables a quicker recognition of
mistakes. However, there’s a possible risk that this recommendation might backslide into
getting feedback before you’ve tried your best to answer the question or solve the
problem at hand. Early studies on feedback timing tended to show a neutral or negativeimpact of immediate feedback on learning. In those studies, however, experimenters
often gave subjects the ability to see the correct answer before subjects had finished
filling out the prompt. 8 That meant subjects could often copy the correct answer rather
than try to retrieve it. Feedback too soon may turn your retrieval practice effectively into
passive review, which we already know is less effective for learning. For hard problems, I
suggest setting yourself a timer to encourage you to think hard on difficult problems
before giving up to look at the correct answer.
How to Improve Your Feedback
By now you see the importance of feedback to your learning efforts. I’ve explained why
feedback, especially when delivered to others, can sometimes backfire. I’ve also showed
how the three types—outcome, informational, and corrective—have different strengths
and the preconditions that need to be in place in order to make them effective. Now I
want to focus on some concrete tactics you can apply to get better feedback.
Tactic 1: Noise Cancellation
Anytime you receive feedback, there are going to be both a signal—the useful information
you want to process—and noise. Noise is caused by random factors, which you shouldn’t
overreact to when trying to improve. Say you’re writing articles that you post online,
trying to improve your writing ability. Most of them won’t attract much attention, and
when they do, it’s often because of factors outside of your control; for example, just the
right person happens to share it, causing it to spill across social networks. The quality of
your writing does drive these factors, but there’s enough randomness that you need to be
careful not to change your entire approach based on one data point. Noise is a real
problem when trying to improve your craft because you need to do far more work to get
the same information about how to write well. By modifying and selecting the streams of
feedback you pay attention to, you can reduce the noise and get more of the signal.
A noise-cancelling technique used in audio processing is filtering. Sound engineers know
that human speech tends to fall within a particular range of frequencies, whereas white
noise is all over the spectrum. They can boost the signal, therefore, by amplifying the
frequencies that occur in human speech and quieting everything else. One way to do this
is to look for proxy signals. These don’t exactly equal success, but they tend to eliminate
some of the noisy data. For blog writing, one way to do so would be to use tracking code
to figure out what percentage of people read your articles all the way to the end. This
doesn’t prove your writing is good, but it’s a lot less noisy than raw traffic data.
Tactic 2: Hitting the Difficulty Sweet Spot
Feedback is information. More information equals more opportunities to learn. A scientific
measure of information is based on how easily you can predict what message it will
contain. If you know that success is guaranteed, the feedback itself provides no
information; you knew it would go well all along. Good feedback does the opposite. It is
very hard to predict and thus gives more information each time you receive it.
The main way this impacts your learning is through the difficulty you’re facing. Many
people intuitively avoid constant failure, because the feedback it offers isn’t alwayshelpful. However, the opposite problem, of being too successful, is more pervasive.
Ultralearners carefully adjust their environment so that they’re not able to predict
whether they’ll succeed or fail. If they fail too often, they simplify the problem so they can
start noticing when they’re doing things right. If they fail too little, they’ll make the task
harder or their standards stricter so that they can distinguish the success of different
approaches. Basically, you should try to avoid situations that always make you feel good
(or bad) about your performance.
Tactic 3: Metafeedback
Typical feedback is performance assessment: your grade on a quiz tells you something
about how well you know the material. However, there’s another type of feedback that’s
perhaps even more useful: metafeedback. This kind of feedback isn’t about your
performance but about evaluating the overall success of the strategy you’re using to
learn.
One important type of metafeedback is your learning rate. This gives you information
about how fast you’re learning, or at least how fast you’re improving in one aspect of your
skill. Chess players might track their Elo ratings growth. LSAT studiers might track their
improvements on mock exams. Language learners might track vocabulary learned or
errors made when writing or speaking. There are two ways you can use this tool. One is to
decide when you should focus on the strategy you’re already using and when you should
experiment with other methods. If your learning rate is slowing to a trickle, that might
mean you’re hitting diminishing returns with your current approach and could benefit
from different kinds of drills, difficulties, or environments. A second way you can apply
metafeedback is by comparing two different study methods to see which works better.
During the MIT Challenge, I’d often split up questions from different subtopics before
testing myself on an exam and try different approaches side by side. Does it work better
to dive straight into trying to answer questions or to spend a little time to try to see that
you understand the main concepts first? The only way you can know is to test your own
learning rates. 
Tactic 4: High-Intensity, Rapid Feedback
Sometimes the easiest way to improve feedback is simply to get a lot more of it a lot
more often. This is particularly true when the default mode of learning involves little or
infrequent feedback. De Montebello’s strategy of improving public speaking relied largely
on getting far more frequent exposure to the stage than most speakers do. Lewis’s
language immersion exposes him to information about his pronunciation at a point when
most students still haven’t uttered a word. High-intensity, rapid feedback offers
informational advantages, but more often the advantage is emotional, too. Fear of
receiving feedback can often hold you back more than anything. By throwing yourself into
a high-intensity, rapid feedback situation, you may initially feel uncomfortable, but you’ll
get over that initial aversion much faster than if you wait months or years before getting
feedback.
Being in such a situation also provokes you to engage in learning more aggressively than
you might otherwise. Knowing that your work will be evaluated is an incredible motivator
to do your best. This motivational angle for committing to high-intensity feedback may
end up outweighing the informational advantage it provides.Beyond Feedback
Receiving feedback isn’t always easy. If you process it as a message about your ego
rather than your skills, it’s easy to let a punch become a knockout. Though carefully
controlling the feedback environment so it is maximally encouraging may be a tantalizing
option, real life rarely affords such an opportunity. Instead, it’s better to get in and take
the punches early so that they don’t put you down for the count. Though short-term
feedback can be stressful, once you get into the habit of receiving it, it becomes easier to
process without overreacting emotionally. Ultralearners use this to their advantage,
exposing themselves to massive amounts of feedback so that the noise can be stripped
away from the signal.
Feedback and the information it provides, however, is useful only if you remember the
lessons it teaches. Forgetting is human nature, so it is not enough to learn; you also need
to make the information stick. This brings us to the next principle of ultralearning,
retention, in which we’ll discuss strategies that will ensure the lessons you learn aren’t
forgotten.





















Ultralearning

Ultralearning: A strategy for acquiring skills and knowledge that is both self-directed
and intense.


Metalearning: First Draw a Map. Start by learning how to learn the subject
or skill you want to tackle. Discover how to do good research and how to draw on
your past competencies to learn new skills more easily.
Focus: Sharpen Your Knife. Cultivate the ability to concentrate. Carve out
chunks of time when you can focus on learning, and make it easy to just do it.
Directness: Go Straight Ahead. Learn by doing the thing you want to
become good at. Don’t trade it off for other tasks, just because those are more
convenient or comfortable.
Drill: Attack Your Weakest Point. Be ruthless in improving your weakest
points. Break down complex skills into small parts; then master those parts and
build them back together again.
Retrieval: Test to Learn. Testing isn’t simply a way of assessing knowledge
but a way of creating it. Test yourself before you feel confident, and push yourself
to actively recall information rather than passively review it.
Feedback: Don’t Dodge the Punches. Feedback is harsh and
uncomfortable. Know how to use it without letting your ego get in the way. Extract
the signal from the noise, so you know what to pay attention to and what to ignore.Retention: Don’t Fill a Leaky Bucket. Understand what you forget and
why. Learn to remember things not just for now but forever.
Intuition: Dig Deep Before Building Up. Develop your intuition through
play and exploration of concepts and skills. Understand how understanding works,
and don’t recourse to cheap tricks of memorization to avoid deeply knowing things.Experimentation: Explore Outside Your Comfort Zone. All of these
principles are only starting points. True mastery comes not just from following the
path trodden by others but from exploring possibilities they haven’t yet imagined.



If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.
—Isaac Newton 

martes, 12 de noviembre de 2019

Cáracter y planeación

Hoy cuando estaba platicando con un amigo a la hora de la comida, salió el tema de porque algunas personas se quedan y no logran superarse.


Mi compañero argumenta que las personas que aún teniendo la oportunidad y no crecen es por que les falta o carácter o poder de planeación.

Hoy me di cuenta que uno debe hacer práctica prospectiva de hasta cuatro años con antelación.

Si yo hubiera tenido esa precaución por ejemplo,tal vez las cosas hubieran sido diferentes.

qué te dije ?

quiúbole

de volon pinpon

domingo, 10 de noviembre de 2019

priority in life

Love
           Yourself , getting to know yourself
           Family
           She
           Interpersonal relations
Health
            Sleep 8 hours 
           Exercise .5 hours 
Eat right 1.5 hours
Take care of your body 1 hour 

Time
Knowledge

Freedom
Self sufficiency
Work 9.5 hours 
Education 
Learning another language
Music
Piano




¿Cómo evitar ser despistado? How to avoid being absent minded?

I think I neeed to exert my observation power and practice more mindfulness .

The way to acquire mindfulness is by practicing it.

If I were more observative I  would have been able to know that the german and the mexican were mad because I parked incorrectly.

This is something deep
also when he scolded me I had better apologize.

I am a little bit mad, because it was not my intention to piss anyone. 7

I really did not know about the way to park

next time I will bring candies for him or some cookies or something.

but to start , how can I know how to avoid those common sense mistakes, may be only through experience.

I am not bad , really , I really did not notice I would  piss someone off.

If I had known he was going to be pissed I would not have parked there.

It is like when I used to misspark at el campestre and I pissed some people on the way.


But anyway it is not the right way to teach someone.
I firmly believe a good leader knows how to teach.

Es lo que me estaba diciendo Abel la otra vez sobre evitar ser tosco. y tratar a los demás de la misma forma que me gustaría que me trataran.

no estás en tu casa

sábado, 9 de noviembre de 2019

héroe de Nacozari

LA HISTORIA DE NACOZARI 

en la ciudad de Aguascalientes se encuentra una famosa avenida llamada héroe de Nacozari, un lugar lleno de historias fantasmales y sucesos inexplicables.

Cómo se da el nombre a esta importante avenida como héroe de Nacozari ? 

Te cuento la historia, 

Cuenta la historia que en 1907 un tren cargado de dinamita se dirigía rumbo a Nacozari, Sonora.
Tras recorrer un buen tramo del camino uno de los vagones comenzó a incendiarse lo que supuso un inminente riesgo para el pueblo a donde se dirigía.
El incidente devino de las chispas que salían de la locomotora que alcanzaron los primeros vagones, que por error fueron colocados cerca del mando de control y que estaban repletos de dinamita.

“Oye, hay humo en el polvorín”, alcanzó a escuchar Jesús, quien tomó la determinación de llevar el tren a campo abierto, a descarrilar el tren y sacrificarse así mismo salvando a cientos de pobladores de Nacozari.
En el poblado se sintió el temblor, la onda expansiva alcanzó a llegar y decenas de viviendas resultaron dañadas. Trece personas murieron pero cientos más se salvaron gracias a la rápida acción del llamado Héroe de Nacozari, ala llegada de las personas de Nacozari encontraron cuerpos tirados, unos con grandes cortadas y otros totalmente calcinados y entre ellos el cuerpo desecho de Jesús García el héroe , cuenta la gente que al llegar escuchaban gritos de dolor los cuales aún se escuchan al caer la madrugada.

Festival del globo

¿SABÍAS
QUE...?
Este año, el Festival Internacional del Globo cumple 18 años, en los que sumará ya:


+ 5 millones de visitas

+ 2,500 globos de todo el mundo

+ 10 mil vuelos

+ cientos de horas de espectáculos de talla mundial


Todo esto ha contribuido a que el FIG sea uno de los 3 eventos de aerostación más importantes del mundo.
¡Te invitamos a celebrar con nosotros!
HISTORIA
El Festival Internacional del Globo es un evento de aerostación en la ciudad de León, Guanajuato, México. Actualmente está posicionado como uno de los 3 más importantes de su tipo, a nivel mundial.


Cuánta gente visita el festival del globo?

dónde se hace el festival del globo?

cuándo comenzó?

martes, 5 de noviembre de 2019

Human Resources Marketing and Recruiting.

Rapid economic changes, skill shortages, changing candidate expectations, new
technologies, and the advent of better people analytics are key factors that impact
how organizations recruit talent in today’s globalized society.
However, most recruiting organizations are not prepared for this rapidly
changing environment. According to a recent study, only 13 % of the 297 companies surveyed believe that their recruiting function is fully optimized
(Erickson et al. (2014) High-impact talent acquisition – findings and maturity
Model. Retrieved from http://marketing.bersin.com/talent-acquisition-systems-
2014.html).
This chapter will provide Human Resources and business leaders with a
comprehensive overview of key aspects of high-performance recruiting as well
as tactical tips and tricks on how to optimize the function.
Readers will gain the following insights from this overview chapter:
• Learn about the history and definition of HR Marketing and Recruiting
• Identify key pillars of a strategic recruiting function
• Consider the perspectives of various stakeholder groups, especially those of
the candidate and hiring manager
• Calculate the business case for investment in HR Marketing and Recruiting
• Identify key metrics to measure the performance of recruiting
• Learn about different candidate sourcing channels and how to optimize the
source mix
• Understand legal considerations and learn about key risks to recruiting such as
selection bias and brand exposure
• Learn about organizational models for structuring of the recruiting function
• Identify ways to optimize the recruiting process
• Understand how technology can enable the recruiting process
• Learn about future trends that are impacting HR Marketing and Recruiting

why do I like cloudy cold days

Blooms taxonomy to plan classes

https://photos.app.goo.gl/J5qQUvhkrCBDFZHYA

Describir tus sentimientos

https://photos.app.goo.gl/mGAgjBY4Ad6Rkyze8

¿Debe el estado interferir en la economía?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1l-I9Ed3tqcZlVnCivkUzo-WCbOlTG8FH/view?usp=drivesdk

sábado, 2 de noviembre de 2019

Día de muertos en Aguascalientes.











Se aproximan el 1 y el 2 de noviembre y los mexicanos se preparan para celebrar el Día de Muertos. Los mexicanos ven a la muerte desde un punto de vista poco convencional, incluso se ríen de ella. Por eso, el Día de Muertos es una celebración llena de color y simbolismo. El Día de Muertos es sin duda una de las tradiciones más importantes para la mayoría de los mexicanos.

El origen del Día de Muertos está en la Mesoamérica prehispánica. Desde entonces, durante la temporada de cosecha, los pueblos indígenas como el purépecha, el mexica y el maya honraban a sus muertos con ofrendas y rituales. Con la conquista se fija la fecha de esta festividad que coincide con las fechas católicas de Todos los Santos y los Fieles Difuntos.

En la actualidad, en muchos estados de México se realizan distintas actividades para conmemorar estas fechas. Muchas familias colocan altares en sus casas para recordar a sus seres queridos muertos. Muchas otras personas van a visitar a sus muertos a los cementerios el 1 de noviembre y colocan ofrendas o altares sobre las tumbas. Luego las familias pasan la noche sin dormir. Mientras velan, rezan y comparten historias y recuerdos de sus difuntos. El día siguiente, el 2 de noviembre, es una fiesta, porque los mexicanos sienten en su corazón que sus seres queridos muertos vuelven a estar con ellos por un solo día. Entonces, las familias comen en el cementerio, alrededor de las tumbas, a veces acompañados por la música de los mariachis.

Las ofrendas y altares tienen un gran simbolismo. En ellas, los mexicanos acostumbran poner las fotos de los difuntos a los que se dedica el altar y  prenden velas. Además, adornan  los altares con papel picado y flores de cempasúchil −flor de color amarillo intenso que se cree es guía de las almas. Otros elementos importantes en las ofrendas son: el copal, la sal, el agua, las calaveritas de azúcar, el pan de muerto; comida como mole, tamales, calabaza en tacha; bebidas como mezcal, atole, tequila; cigarrillos y otras cosas favoritas de los muertos. En las tumbas de los niños, los familiares colocan juguetes también

La tradiciones mexicanas de la Velación de las Ánimas y el Día de Muertos son Patrimonio Cultural Inmaterial de la Humanidad de la Unesco (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization).



Preguntas


Cuándo se celebra el día de muertos ?

Cuándo comenzó la celebración del día de muertos?

Qué hacen los mexicanos el día de muertos?

Cómo decoran los mexicanos sus altares?


motivation to work hard

1. Don’t talk, just act. Don’t say, just show. Don’t promise, just prove.
 2. Never stop doing great just because someone doesn’t give you credit.
 3. It always seems impossible until it’s done.
 4. Marry the right person. This one decision will determine 90% of your happiness or misery.
 5. Invest the now in tomorrow’s dream.
 6. Some Girls want superman but walk past Clark kent every day!
 7. If you want to succeed, you have to let failure be your best friend!
 8. Be self-starter.
 9. I feel like making dreams come true.
 10. Wish for it. Hope for it. Dream for it. But by all means: DO IT!
 
 CAPTIONS FOR MOTIVATION
 1. Life is short. Do stuff that matters.
 2. When you tell me “I can’t”, all I hear is bla bla.
 3. Tomorrow is a lovely excuse, isn’t it?!
 4. Tomorrow is a day that never arrives.
 5. Stop worrying about the potholes in the road and enjoy the journey.
 6. If you are always trying to be normal, you will never know how amazing you can be.
 7. It is hard to fail completely when you are aiming for something big.
 8. If it would be easy, everybody could do it!
 9. Success is standing up one more time than you got knocked over.
 10. Only you can change your life. Nobody else can do it for.
 Best Captions For Motivation
 1. Be self-starter.
 2. If it doesn’t challenge you, it doesn’t change you.
 3. I didn’t come here to lose.
 4. Hustle until your haters ask if you’re hiring.
 5. Don’t stop when you are tired. Stop when you are done!
 6. Get up, stand up! Don’t give up the fight!
 7. Man cannot discover new oceans unless he has the courage to lose sight of the shore.
 8. But if you close your eyes, does it almost feel like nothing’s changed at all?
 9. One day, you will be at the place you always wanted to be.
 10. The goal is to Retire Young and Rich.
 Best Motivational Captions
 1. People don't fail, They give up.
 2. Past is in your head, future is in your hand.
 3. Work until expensive become cheap.
 4. Dream big, work hard, and stay humble during the process.
 5. Don't stress. Do your best. Forget the rest.
 6. The goal is not to be better than the other person, but your previous self.
 7. One day you’ll wake up and you’ll be so glad you didn’t settle for just anything, and you chose to wait for God’s plan.
 8. A bird sitting on a tree is never afraid of the branch breaking, because her trust is not on the branch but on it’s own wings. Always believe in yourself.
 9. Right‬ or ‪Wrong‬ doesn't ‪‎exist‬! When u have a ‪‎CONFIDENCE‬.
 10. Be bold to own your mistakes in Life, accept your faults and improve your personality.
 Awesome Motivational Captions
 1. Stop being afraid of what could go wrong and start being positive about what could go right.
 2. Great things never come from comfort zones.
 3. Life doesn't give you what you want. It gives you what you work for.
 4. Age is a question of mind over matter. If you don't mind, it doesn't matter.
 5. Hope is the power that gives a person the confidence to step out and try.
 6. It does not matter how many times you get knocked down, but how many times you get up.
 7. Decision defines destiny.
 8. All you need to change is will.
 9. Never, never, never, never give up.
 10. Do not give up, the beginning is always the hardest.
 Best Captions For Motivation
 1. Do not give up, the beginning is always the hardest.
 2. Whatever brings you down, will eventually make you stronger.
 3. The harder you fall, the higher you bounce.
 4. The secret of success is to know something nobody else knows.
 5. Everyone has a will to win but very few have the will to prepare to win.
 6. Success is the sum of small efforts, repeated day in and day out.
 7. If you want your life to be meaningful go out and do something about it.
 8. Motivation is what gets you started. Habit is what keeps you going.
 9. SUCCESS belongs only to those who are willing to work harder than anyone else.
 10. If you believe in yourself, things are possible.
 11. Enjoy Every Moment You Have. Because In Life, There Are No Rewinds.
 12. Life goes on.With or without you :-)
 13. Its the possibility of having a dream come true that makes life interesting.
 14. Life is a matter of change is not a matter of choice.
 15. For comfortable journey of life, just reduce the luggage of desires.:-)
 16. The worst part of life is waiting. The best part of life is having someone worth waiting for.
 17. If there are no ups and down in your life It means you are dead.
 18. Life has no limitations, except the ones you make.
 19. Don't waste your life trying to get back what was taken away.
 20. You don't need everything to enjoy life. You already have life to enjoy everything :) :)
 Best Captions For Motivations
 1. If you don't go after what you want, you will never have it.
 2. Even if you're on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there.
 3. Pearls don't lie on the sea shore. If you want one, you must dive for it.
 4. The difference between ordinary and extraordinary is that little extra.
 5. People know you for what you've done, not for what you plan to do.
 6. One day your entire life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
 7. Patience is not the ability to wait, but the ability to keep a good attitude while waiting.
 8. Opportunity dances with those who are already on the dance floor.
 9. You don't have to be great to start, but you have to start to be great.
 10. Success is simple. Do what's right, the right way, at the right time.
 11. Live like a candle which burns itself but gives light to others.
 12. Better to live one year as a tiger, than a hundred as a sheep.
 13. We all have problems; the way we solve them is what makes us different.
 14. Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.
 15. You'll never leave where you are until you decide where you'd rather be.
 16. Once you learn to be happy alone you won't tolerate anyone who can't make you just as happy.
 17. If people knew how hard I had to work to gain my mastery, it wouldn't seem wonderful at all.
 18. Trying and Doing are two different things. When you try, you hope. When you do, you succeed.
 19. People change and things go wrong, but always remember, life goes on.
 20. Sometimes it's the smallest decisions that can change your life forever.

sábado, 26 de octubre de 2019

LA PREVISIÓN COMO HERRAMIENTA PARA EL ANÁLISIS DE LAS RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES. ESTATUS ACTUAL

              


    
    Enunciado     y justificación del tema.

En todos los aspectos de la vida los seres humanos necesitamos tener una especie de plan o ruta a seguir. Si algo sale mal tomamos otra ruta o el plan B, en el caso de las relaciones internacionales debemos prever los posibles problemas drásticos para poder evitarlos. No estamos hablando de predicciones o visiones del futuro sino en provisiones para el futuro para evitar ese futuro oscuro e incierto que todos tememos. El tener en mente los posibles resultados de ciertas decisiones puede ser útil para poder evitar desastres y también al diseñar políticas públicas que nos lleven al status deseado.
Esta investigación pretende ser una Tesis sobre temas teóricos.Pertenecen a ese tipo de investigaciones las que tienen como propósito, desarrollo y conclusión el enfoque al análisis de un tema, un tópico o una problemática que son enmarcados dentro de un ambiente netamente de carácter teórico. Propiamente este tipo de tesis no pertenecen al ambiente de estudios empírico ni pragmático sino que son de exclusivamente de carácter teórico

Una subclasificación de esta tesis es la de carácter documental. Los trabajos documentales son aquellos trabajos de investigación que para su desarrollo se apoyan en datos e información de textos y documentos que le servirán de referencia para cimentar y avalar lo investigado. En estas tesis, para soportar su fundamentación, el investigador se respalda en párrafos, conceptos, definiciones y aportaciones ya antes comprobadas por otros autores, los mismos que favorecen la sustentación del tema.    
Cabe señalar que es requisito indispensable, para darle la formalidad y validez que se demanda en una investigación de este tipo, que en la redacción de la tesis se haga la clara alusión a las fuentes de consulta utilizadas y, en algunos casos, con el propósito de profundizar en la aportación al tema, es permitido interpretar lo leído o copiar textualmente la información obtenida, tal y como están escritos en el documento de consulta. Dando al autor el crédito correspondiente a través de citas bibliográficas.
El propósito último de este trabajo de investigación en particular es llegar a tener una idea detallada de las diferentes técnicas usadas en la prospectiva internacional para en futuros trabajos de investigación hacer una aplicación en un caso específico.Avance de investigación 

Ejemplos de prospectiva internacional en literatura de relaciones internacionales

Debido a que no es posible aplicar una técnica de investigación sin antes haberla comprendido a plenitud es necesario ver la técnica ap)icada y aprender de un gran número de ejemplos en distintos contextos 

Lo que se propone en este trabajo es hacer una recopilación documental de todas las propuestas que los académicos han hecho o las predicciones y con base en ellas reflexionar.Esta actividad es novedosa y al aplicarla en distintas áreas nos permitirá adquirir una visión mucho más amplia sobre el futuro.

Un ejemplo es : En este sentido existen condiciones para que Peña Nieto pueda diseñar una política exterior de mayor dinamismo para los primeros años de sus sexenio. ( con respecto de la política exterior de Calderón) (Flores, 2013)
Ya con base en estos comentarios confirmar si en efecto fue posible tal afirmación y si no , que fue lo que incidiò en el no cumplimiento de tal prospectiva. 

    
    Planteamiento     del problema

Nadie puede predecir el futuro, lo que se puede hacer para evitar resultados indeseados es prever todos los posibles escenarios que existen para así poder tomar decisiones que vayan encaminadas a evitarlos en la medida de lo posible. Si alguien hubiera previsto la primera y más aún una segunda guerra mundial, tal vez se hubiera podido hacer algo para evitarlas. Es cierto que el comportamiento humano es impredecible pero en la actualidad contamos con herramientas tecnológicas y probabilísticas muy poderosas que hasta cierto punto nos permiten prever esos desagradables y mortales desenlaces.
El propósito de la investigación es, en primer lugar describir el estado de cosas en cuanto a estas tecnologías y metodologías.


Marco     teórico y/o marco histórico 

Una noche oscura Tales estaba afuera caminando en Mileto, mirando el cielo estrellado, tropezó en un hoyo entonces una mujer que lo conocía de filósofo le dijo, ¿Cómo puedes ver lo que hay en los cielos cuando no puedes ni siquiera ver lo que hay debajo de ti en el suelo?
Todos en la ciudad se burlaban de Tales, En la rica ciudad de Mileto la gente le decía a Tales que nadie podía prosperar solamente de pensar y por eso no era rico.
Sin embargo Tales estaba determinado a probar que sus detractores estaban mal entonces decidió que podía usar su ciencia para hacer dinero.
Él había estudiado los patrones de la naturaleza en la región de Ionio, donde estaba localizada la ciudad de Mileto. Un invierno se dio cuenta que la siguiente temporada de cosecha de oliva sería exorbitante. Cuando aún era invierno rento todas las prensa de aceite de olivo, en el verano cuando los agricultores se dieron cuenta de que habría una descomunal cantidad de olivos descubrieron que Tales ya había rentado todas las prensar, Tales hizo una fortuna vendiendo sus derechos de las prensas a los agricultores.
Al hacerse rico de esta manera Tales no invirtió ningún tipo de esfuerzo físico .Se hizo rico al aplicar sus observaciones de los patrones del clima para predecir cómo sería la cosecha de olivos.
Una previsión es una predicción basada en el conocimiento del conocimiento pasado. Normalmente la predicción es expresada de manera probabilística. La predicción es una afirmación de probabilidad de que un resultado que se llevará a cabo. La predicción puede o no depender de otro evento o proceso que esté pasando en otra circunstancia preexistente. En todo caso una previsión une un comportamiento anterior con una probabilidad futura en la que una variable determinada de este comportamiento se llevará a cabo.

De acuerdo con Baena (2004) La PROSPECTIVA ES UNA HERRAMIENTA metodológica que nos sirve para reflexionar y proponer respuestas en un mundo complejo de estructuras sistémicas.
La Prospectiva construye futuros, es una forma de planeación de nuestra vida personal y profesional y tiene algo de los otros estudios del futuro, la posibilidad de crear nuestras utopías y volverlas futuros posibles conciliando las situaciones reales. Posee esas posibilidades de imaginar sin límite hasta donde la imaginación alcance al tiempo, tiene las posibilidades de hacernos pensar la manera en cómo el pensamiento mágico y mítico han penetrado espiritualmente en los pueblos y han formado prácticas que han sido usadas durante mucho tiempo y para muchos también han resultado; hay la posibilidad inclusive de conciliar estas prácticas con la Prospectiva. Para esto aún falta tiempo pero, por encima de todas las cosas, falta gente que crea que el futuro se puede construir.
Para Baena (2004) El futuro puede considerarse como surgido de la interacción de cuatro componentes: eventos o acontecimientos, tendencias, imágenes y acciones.
Uno de los problemas al que se enfrenta el estudio de la perspectiva es, como dividir adecuadamente los tiempos, en donde termina el pasado y comienza el futuro.
Otro de los problemas es el temor a pensar en el futuro.
Existen según Baena 3 corrientes de la prospectiva. La primera es la americana, La europea y una tercera que surge de la europea y que se llama corriente crítica.
Los componentes del pensamiento prospectivo son: el pensamiento sistémico, y la planeación prospectiva, la cual a su vez se puede dividir en: Planeación reactiva, planeación inercial, planeación estratégica, y por último la planeación prospectiva.
Hay dos orientaciones en el análisis de los sistemas cuando hacemos planeación prospectiva:
Decisional y cognoscitiva.
Las características de la planeación prospectiva son:
Visión sistémica, participación, continuidad y flexibilidad, aprendizaje organizacional, creatividad e innovación.
La prospectiva trabaja con métodos cuantitativos y cualitativos.
De acuerdo con la misma autora la Prospectiva aún se encuentra en la mesa de debate sobre si es una ciencia, una disciplina, solamente como la filosofía.
La previsión reduce la incertidumbre y la especulación, de acuerdo con NAZLI CHOUCRI (1976) existen cuatro tipos de metas
Entender lo desconocido
Controlar resultados futuros
Entender la dinámica de un sistema de acuerdo con las condiciones presentes
Planear para el futuro inmediato

Existen dos tipos de metodologías para realizar la práctica de la previsión de menos a más sistemáticas
Normativas
Exploratorias –proyectivas
Basadas en modelos: Estadísticas y funcionales
Basadas en simulaciones
Basadas en inteligencia artificial

Una previsión a su vez puede estar basada en cuatro tipos de condiciones iniciales: estructural, probabilidad, preferencia y tendencias y proyecciones, que son el tipo más prevaleciente en la actualidad.

Una previsión a su vez puede tener distintos propósitos, cada uno considerando un espacio temporal.
Retrospectiva
Largo plazo
Corto plazo

Una vez que se ha hecho una previsión, esta se puede validar de distintas formas incluyendo:
Proceso de cuestionamiento
Métodos estadísticos
Y comparaciones con informaciones

Algunos factores a tener en cuenta a la hora de hacer previsiones en las relaciones internacionales son: las características de los actores dominantes. Las condiciones bajo las cuales los sistemas internacionales cambian, el papel que juegan los actores sin territorio las demandas de los actores Estatales, y las percepciones que tienen los poco privilegiados y pobres sobre las relaciones internacionales.

Algunas de las cosas que se deben tener en cuenta a la hora de hacer previsiones es tratar de incluir todo el contexto histórico de otra forma se puede incurrir en no conocer una memoria corta. Otra cosa sería el ignorar las fuentes potenciales de cambio o el creer que no se tendrán más desarrollo en el campo de las relaciones internacionales y por último ser demasiado optimista sin un aparato crítico adecuado.
Uso de escenarios como instrumentos de investigación.
La previsión debe preceder a la planeación, un buen plan requiere una buena previsión. La previsión le asigna probabilidad y certeza a futuros alternativos, y la planeación define los parámetros de una acción futura. La planeación es el intento de confrontar los riesgos alternativos y asegurar que cualquier riesgo tomado son los riesgos adecuados, en tanto que la previsión es más como incrementar la certeza sobre las implicaciones y consecuencias de la planeación. En sentido de operaciones, ambas, intentan reducir la poca certeza y especificar los riesgos.
Debido a que la investigación de posibles futuros a través de la construcción de escenarios solamente puede ser derivada de extrapolaciones de condiciones previamente conocidas y ya que tales condiciones pueden dirigir en distintas direcciones, el método del escenario promueve un pensamiento de tipo lateral en lugar de linear. En resumen las condiciones que ya conocemos se abren a la reconsideración. Si los escenarios futuros conducen nuevamente a la construcción de modelos alternativos del presente entonces estos se pueden refinar más, haciendo posible a su vez refinar más los modelos del futuro.
El proceso entonces se vuelve interactivo, al pensar interactivamente sobre el futuro, aprendemos a pensar más críticamente sobre el presente. Una aplicación de los estudios sobre el futuro es por lo tanto la habilidad de planear el futuro de forma más rigurosa, de manera informada y unos de los métodos prácticos de tal planeación es la asignación de probabilidad
Esto permite establecer un cierto tipo de criterio para prestar al estudio de las relaciones internacionales a medida que aparecen.





 
Preguntas     de investigación y/o hipótesis
¿Cuáles son y han sido algunas de las tecnologías o métodos para poder prevenir problemas?
¿Cuáles son las herramientas que como individuos usamos para poder prevenir posibles consecuencias indeseadas?
¿Cómo pudieron haber sido usadas dichas tecnologías para prevenir los desastres del pasado?



Objetivos     (generales y particulares)
Hacer una descripción de los métodos y tecnologías existentes para prevenir desastres o contingencias internacionales mediante la previsión. Usar este método para poder describir las interacciones migratorias México EE.UU, sus posibles consecuencias y la descripción de futuros escenarios así como la proposición de medidas para evitar los futuros problemas que este fenómeno pudiera traer.
    
    Esquema     o índice preliminar
    
    Descripción     general de la previsión     
    
    Historia     de la previsión.     
    Objetivos     de la previsión
    
    Factores     a considerar
    
    Riesgos     a considerar
    
    Metodologías     de la previsión
    
    Métodos     cualitativos
    
    Métodos     cuantitativos.
    
    Uso     de escenarios como instrumento de investigación
prospectiva internacional
Bases teóricas
Aplicaciones prácticas
El orden mundial contemporáneo
El poder y el orden internacional
Protagonistas
Tendencias e implicaciones
El Estado-nación
 Surgimiento y evolución
 El Estado-nación contemporáneo
 Tendencias y perspectivas
Consolidación y permanencia
 Las integraciones y desintegraciones
La cooperación internacional
 Concepto integral :Aspectos políticos, económicos, sociales, culturales, científicos,
técnicos.
Bilateral
Multilateral
Tendencias y perspectiva
La seguridad internacional
 Concepto integral :Seguridad política, económica, social, militar, alimentaria, ecológica,jurídica.
Seguridad nacional, regional y mundial
Implicaciones actuales y tendencias
    
Condiciones     iniciales
    
    Periodo     de tiempo susceptible a ser previsto
    
Validación     de los resultados



    
     Aparato     crítico (notas y citas)


    
    Fuentes     de consulta


Charles F. Doran, ‘Why Forecasts Fail: The Limits and Potential of Forecasting in International Relations and Economics’, in Davis B. Bobrow (ed.), ‘Prospects for International Relations: Conjectures about the Next Millennium’, International Studies Review, Vol. 1, No. 2, Blackwell Publishers for International Studies Association, summer 1999, p. 12. Consultado en http://www.jstor.org/stable/3186379?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents


Nazli Choucri, 'Key Issues in International Relations Forecasting', in Nazli Choucri, and Thomas W. Robinson (eds), Forecasting in International Relations: Theory, Methods, Problems, Prospects, W. H. Freeman & Co., San Francisco, 1976, p. 16.
Consultado en http://web.mit.edu/polisci/nchoucri/publications/articles/A-4_Forecasting_International_Relations_Problems_Prospects.pdf
Paz Baena, G. (2004). Prospectiva política: Guía para su comprensión y práctica. México: UNAM.
Sonia Deciga Campos    Reflexiones sobre la construcción teórico-metodológica del estudio del futuro: aportaciones, alcances y límites para los estudios en relaciones internacionales / tesis que para obtener el grado de Maestría en Estudios en Relaciones Internacionales, presenta; tutor principal de tesis Carlos Ballesteros Pérez
Amin, Samir, Los desafíos de la mundialización, Siglo Veintiuno Editores, México, 1997, 297 pp.
Brown, L. R., La situación del mundo. El Informe del Instituto Worldwach, Ed. Emecé, Madrid, 1994, 477 pp.
 Falk, R. A., A study a future worlds, The Free Press, New York, 1975, 506 pp.
Feather, John, The information society. A study of continuity and change, Library Association Publishing, London,
1994, 160 pp.
Fetscher, I., Condiciones de supervivencia de la humanidad. ¿Es posible salvar al progreso?, Ed. Alfa, Barcelona,
1988, 243 pp.
 Galbraith, J. K., Anatomía del poder, Ed. Diana, México, 1990, 224 pp.
Hernández-Vela Salgado, Edmundo, Diccionario de Política Internacional, Editorial Porrúa, México, sexta edición,
2002, 2 Vols., 1296 pp.
Hoffman, S., Orden mundial o primacía, Grupo Editorial Latinoamericano, Argentina, 1988, pp379.
ICDSI, Common security. A programme for disarmament. Independent Commission on Disarmament ans Security Sigues, Ed. Pan Books, London, 1982, 202 pp.
ICDSI, North. South: A programme for survival. Independent Commission on Disarmament ans Security Sigues, Ed.Pan Books, London, 198o, 302 pp.
Jones W. S., The logic of international relations, Harper Collins Publisher, New York, 1991.
Kennedy, Paul, Auge y caída de las grandes potencias, Plaza y Janés, Madrid, 1989.
Keohane & Nye; Poder e interdependencia: la política mundial en transición. Grupo Editor Latinoamericano, Buenos Aires, 1988.
 Kung & Koschell, Hacia una ética mundial, Trotta, Madrid, 1994.
 Mende, T., ¿Ayuda económica o recolonización?, Ed. Siglo XXI, Madrid, 1997.
Morgenthau, H. J.; Escritos sobre política internacional. Ed. Tecnos, España, 1990, 166 pp.
 NIC, Mapping the global future, Report of The National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Proyect. Nal Intellillence Council.
USA, 2004.
NAS, Technological frontiers of the foreign policy, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, 1985, 309 pp.
UNESCO, Biotechnology economic and social aspects, issues for developing countries, Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, 1992.
UNESCO, Repercusiones sociales de la revolución científica y tecnológica, UNESCO/Editorial Tecnos, México,1982.
 Aron, R., La república imperial. Los Estados Unidos en el Mundo, Ed. Alianza, España, 1976, 389 pp.
 Deutsch, K. W., El análisis de las relaciones internacionales, Ed. Paidós, Argentina, 1970, 244, pp.
 Kahan, H. y Briggs, B. B., Lo que habrá de suceder en la década de 1975 a 1985, Mece Editores, 1972, 254 pp.
 Nkrumanh, K., Neocolonialismo, última etapa del imperialismo, Ed. Sixlo XXI, México.
Referencias hemerográficas
Adelphi Papers, Londosn, International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Alternatives, New York, Institute for World Order.
Ciencias Sociales, Moscú, Academia de Ciencias de Rusia.
Conflict Studies, London, Institute for the Studies of Conflicts.
Development Dialogue, Uppsala, Dag Hammarskjöld Foundation.
Etudes Internationales, Québec, Centre Québécois de Relations Internationales, Université Laval.
Foreign Affairs, New York, Council on Foreign Relations.
Foreign Policy, Washington, Carnegie Endowment for international Peace.
Impacto, ciencia y sociedad, Madrid, Oficina de Educación Iberoamericana, UNESCO.
International Affairs, London, Royal Institute for International Affairs.
International Journal, Toronto, Canadian Institute for International Affairs.
International Organization, Cambridge, World Peace Foundation, Coenell University and MIT.
International Perspectives, Ottawa Department of External Affairs.
International Security, Cambridge, Center for Peace of International Affairs, Harvard.
L’Observateur de L’OCDE, Paris, Organization de Coopération et de Développement Economiques.
La Vie Internationale, Moscú, Association Znanie.Le Monde Diplomatique, París.
Peace and de Science, Vienna, International Institute for Peace.
Relaciones Internacionales, México, Centro de Relaciones Internacionales, Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales,UNAM.
Revista de Política Internacional, Madrid, Instituto de Estudios Políticos.
Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales, México, División de Estudios de Postgrado, Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales, UNAM.
Strategic Studies, Washington, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Georgetown University.
The Brookings Review, Washington Brookings Institution.
The Washington Quarterly, Washington, Center for Strategic International Studies, Georgetown University.


El carajillo





El carajillo es una bebida hecha con café y licor 43.
Se sirve en vaso pequeño.
 Su origen es desconocido y quizá fue cuando Cuba era provincia española y los soldados combinaban café con ron para coger "corajillo", de coraje, y de ahí, carajillo.
Resultado de imagen para soldados españoles 1810 tomando


Otras personas dicen  que en la Estación de Francia de Barcelona los arrieros que esperaban el turno de carga, en lugar de pedir café y copa, pedían que se lo mezclaran, diciendo "que ara guillo" (que ahora me voy). De ahí el apócope "caraguillo" y su posterior desviación fonética.


Resultado de imagen para arrieros